11 March 2012 Last updated at 00:31 GMT

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Japan quake: Images of then and now

One year ago, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck off the coast of north-east Japan. Thousands of people lost their lives and many more were injured as torrents of water swept through coastal cities, towns and villages.
Twelve months on, the Japanese people are making progress in repairing the damage to their country and rebuilding their lives. Scroll through the 10 images below, dragging the slider at the top of each one to see to see how some of the worst affected areas looked at the time of the quake and how they have recovered.

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• After the quake
• Now

Several waves engulfed the city of Ishinomaki, Miyagi prefecture, killing hundreds. By January, much debris had been cleared. Pictures: AFP/Getty

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Several waves engulfed the city of Ishinomaki, Miyagi prefecture, killing hundreds. By January, much debris had been cleared. Pictures: AFP/Getty

After the quake

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Large parts of the city of Kesennuma, Miyagi prefecture, were destroyed. The difficult task of rebuilding the community remains. Pictures: AFP/Getty

After the quake

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The city streets of Miyako, Iwate prefecture, were flooded in March last year. Some appeared back to normal in last month. Pictures: Reuters

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Miyako's port area was devastated and few of the fishing community's boats survived. The port now appears free of debris. Pictures: Reuters

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A Miyako employee captured the city swamped with water in 2011. Last month, cars and buses were once again filling the streets. Pictures: Reuters

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Waves breached the sea wall in Miyako's port, carrying boats, houses and cars inland. Traffic has now returned to the coastal road. Pictures: Reuters

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Thousands were killed in the city of Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, and few buildings were left standing. Rebuilding there continues. Pictures: AFP/Getty

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Shattered houses, broken furniture and mangled cars littered Ofunato's streets. All appeared to have been cleared in January. Pictures: AFP/Getty

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A catamaran, seen perching on two-storey building in Otsuchi, Iwate prefecture, in March last year, has now been removed. Pictures: AFP/Getty

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A plane, cars, trucks and other debris were dumped by the tsunami at Sendai Airport. It re-opened days later for emergency flights. Pictures: AFP

A ray of hope for Japan's tsunami-hit businesses

By Mariko Oi BBC News, Miyagi

Advertisement

Kaichiro Saito gives Mariko Oi a tour of his sake factory

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Japan quake

• Images of then and now
• Grief of survivors
• Loss and recovery in numbers
• Fukushima report notes failures

In the cold of a Japanese winter, just before dawn, a 100-year-old factory rumbles to the sounds of rice being washed, polished and steamed.

Set on a hill above the coastal town of Kesennuma in the north-eastern prefecture of Miyagi, its machines gurgle, clunk, hiss and rattle as they get tons of rice ready to be made into sake.
Brewing the clear, strong spirit is a long process that was brought to a sudden halt last year when the deadly tsunami smashed into and over the city below.
In a small city of just over 70,000 people, 1,032 were killed, 326 more are missing and more than 15,000 homes were destroyed.
As we drive up the hill, it is still evident how far the wave came a year ago.
"It stopped just a few metres before reaching the factory," says Kaichiro Saito, whose family built the sake factory in 1906.
The Kakuboshi factory was untouched, but Mr Saito saw his company's historic shop in the city washed away.
Since then, much like the rest of the Miyagi, Mr Saito has been trying to rebuild as quickly as he can.
Despite numerous challenges including power failure, within a month, he managed to produce sake - and named it tomoshibi.
"It means a ray of hope for the city known for its fishing industry," explains the fifth generation sake-maker.
The first batch of this specially-made sake sold out immediately.
One year on, Mr Saito says his business is busier than ever.
"Not only people in this area, but people in Tokyo and other big cities have been supporting us so we are getting a lot more orders."
Resilient spirit
Half of the city, however, is still in ruin. Soon, all the collapsed buildings will be bulldozed.

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“Start Quote

We are forever grateful for all the support that we've been getting. But I hope people will continue to help us even after the one-year mark”

End Quote Kaichiro Saito Kakuboshi

While it is much cleaner compared to a few months after the tsunami, it will take many more years to rebuild the city.

But in the middle of a vast field, there is a small restaurant which serves Japanese noodle ramen.
With just over 20 customers, the place is full.
"I am 69 you see, I thought maybe I should just retire," says Tomohiko Takahashi who reopened the restaurant at the end of December.
"The water came up to the second floor where we live so the entire ground floor was totally destroyed," he recalls.
"But at least the building was still here and people encouraged us to reopen.
"I thought there'd be no customers because the city feels so empty but we've been very busy and people tell me how happy they are to see us reopen which makes me happy, too."
Step by step, local businesses are getting back on their feet.
Red tape
Bureaucracy of the government, however, is slowing the recovery, says Takahira Ogawa of Standard and Poor's.
"The government has been very slow in deciding about the budget and where to spend the money," he says.
"Once the rebuilding begins, it will boost Japan's overall economic growth, too.
"However, because of the red tape, different ministries are having a turf war," he adds.

Half of Kesennuma in Miyagi prefecture is still covered in rubble from the tsunami

The Reconstruction Agency was finally set up in February. Mr Ogawa says the authorities need to speed up the reconstruction efforts to ensure a stable recovery of the country's economy and businesses.
But support is coming from elsewhere, including some officer workers 300 miles (480km) south of Kesennuma.
In Tokyo, they are ending their day with a few glasses of sake from the north-east of Japan.
The special restaurant in Ginza is called Reconstruction Support Bar and everything on the menu is from the affected region.
"Sake from the north-east is delicious," says one of the customers Shuhei Ichino.
"We have to be careful not to drink too much," he laughs as he pours more sake into his friends' cups.
All the money that they spend will be donated to the three prefectures - Miyagi, Iwate and Fukushima.
And their cheer is felt far in the north.
"We are forever grateful for all the support that we've been getting," says sake-maker Mr Saito.
"But I hope people will continue to help us even after the one-year mark."

China's death row TV hit, Interviews Before Execution

By James Jones This World

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In today's Magazine

• Reviving Britain's forgotten food
• A Point of View: Churchill and the birth of the special relationship
• Ecuador family's search for missing sons
• The moral dilemmas of Syria's revolution

Each week in Henan Province in central China, millions of people tune in to watch an extraordinary talk show called Interviews Before Execution, in which reporter Ding Yu interviews murderers condemned to death.

Every Monday morning, Ding Yu and her team scour the court reports to find cases to cover on their programme. They have to move quickly, as prisoners can be executed seven days after they are sentenced.
To Western eyes the show may seem exploitative, but Ding disagrees.
"Some viewers may consider it cruel to ask a criminal to do an interview when they are about to be executed.
"On the contrary, they want to be heard," she says.
"Some criminals I interviewed told me: 'I'm really very glad. I said so many things in my heart to you at this time. In prison, there was never a person I was willing to talk to about past events.'"

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“Start Quote

I witness the transition from life to death”

End Quote Ding Yu

Interviews Before Execution was first broadcast on 18 November 2006 on Henan Legal Channel, one of 3,000 state-owned TV stations in China. And Ding has interviewed a prisoner every week since then.

The aim, the programme-makers say, is to find cases that will serve as a warning to others. The slogan at the top of every programme calls for human nature to awaken and "perceive the value of life".
In China, 55 crimes carry the death penalty, from murder, treason and armed rebellion to bribery and smuggling. Thirteen other crimes, including VAT fraud, smuggling relics and credit fraud, were only recently removed from the list of capital offences.
Interviews Before Execution, however, focuses exclusively on cases of violent murder.

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Bullet or injection

• There are thought to be more executions than in any other country, although the exact number is a state secret
• There is no presumption of innocence in Chinese law and confessions are sometimes taken before the suspect has had access to a lawyer
• Convicted prisoners are killed by a single shot to the back of the head or by lethal injection inside a mobile execution truck

It has never interviewed political prisoners or cases where the crime is in question, and the team has to have the Henan high court's consent in every case.

"Without their consent, our programme would end immediately," Ding told a BBC documentary team.
Broadcast every Saturday night, the programme is frequently rated one of Henan's top 10 shows, with nearly 40 million viewers out of the 100 million who live in the province.
After more than 200 interviews, it has made Ding Yu a star, known to many as "Beauty with the Beasts".
If people do not heed the warnings the programme offers, she says, then it is right they face consequences.
"I feel sorry and regretful for them. But I don't sympathise with them, for they should pay a heavy price for their wrongdoing. They deserve it."
Many of the cases featured in the programme are motivated by money and one case in particular stands out for Ms Yu.
The perpetrators were boyfriend and girlfriend - young, educated college graduates.

Bao Ronting was the first openly gay man Ding Yu had ever met

The couple planned to rob her grandparents but it went wrong and the young man, 27-year-old Zhang Peng, ended up killing them both.
"They are so young. They never had the chance to see this world, or to enjoy life, a career, work, and the love of family.
"They've made the wrong choice, and the price is their lives," she says.
But after so many interviews, little surprises Ding.
"I've interviewed criminals even younger than that young student, some just 18 years old. That is the minimum age you can be sentenced to death."
Homosexuality is still a huge taboo in China, and when in 2008 the show covered the case of Bao Ronting, a gay man who murdered his mother, ratings soared.
It was the first time Ms Yu had ever met an openly gay man.
"I had never come close to a gay man, so I really couldn't accept some of his practices, words and deeds.
"Though he was a man, he asked me in a very feminine tone, 'Do you feel awkward speaking to me?' Actually I felt very awkward," she recalls.

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Find out more

• Interviews Before Execution is part of the latest This World series, broadcast on Monday 12 March at 23:20 GMT on BBC Two.
• Watch again on iPlayer (UK only) using the link.

She and her team made a further three episodes on the case of Bao Ronting and followed him until the day he was executed in November 2008.

During one of these meetings, Bao asked Ding: "Will I go to heaven?"
Rembering these words, she reflects: "I witness the transition from life to death."
Bao Ronting was paraded in an open top truck on the way to his execution with a placard around his neck detailing his crime. The practice is illegal in modern China - but the law is not always observed.
Judge Lui Wenling, who works closely with the programme-makers, says things are changing in the Chinese legal system.
"The present criminal policies in China are 'To kill less and cautiously' and 'Combining lenience and strictness'.
"It means, 'If the case is fit for lenient treatment, give it lenience,' and, 'If the case should be strictly treated, give it a strict punishment,'" he says.
Ding recently covered the case of Wu Yanyan, a young mother who murdered her husband after allegedly suffering years of abuse.

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“Start Quote

Since the death sentence for criminals is itself a violent act, then we should abolish it”

End Quote Judge Pan

She was initially sentenced to death for the murder. But since 2007, every execution verdict in China has to be approved by the Supreme Court, and in this case it took the view that the abuse provided mitigating circumstances.

The higher court kept returning the case to the local court until the death sentence was suspended.
Ding visited the prison with Wu Yanyan's daughter for an emotional reunion.
If the young mother continues to behave well in prison, after two years she could ultimately be released - a small sign of changing attitudes in China.
One of China's more liberal judges, Judge Pan, along with some other senior figures in the justice system, foresees more far-reaching reforms in future.
"A life could end in the twinkling of an eye after a trial. I'd say this is also very cruel," he says.
"It's also a means of getting rid of evil deeds through an evil deed.
"Should we abolish the death penalty? Since the death sentence for criminals is itself a violent act, then we should abolish it. However, I don't think our country is ready yet.
"But in the future, it would be good to abolish it."

Life on the lake

Vipasai Niyamabha
Special to The Nation
Nyaung Shwe February 29, 2012 1:00 am

Home to Intha leg rowers and floating farms, Inle Lake is still relatively unspoiled by the outside world

In a state of civil conflict and closed to much of the world for more than 60 years, Burma is still best described by Rudyard Kipling's famous quote: "quite unlike any land you know about". The itinerary of a first timer will include the chaotic charms Rangoon, the old capital of Mandalay and Bagan but a visit to remote Inle Lake in Shan State will offer the mellowest moments of all.
The slim teak boats on show at Rangoon's National Museum are very much part of everyday life in Nyaung Shwe. From the narrow canals to the vast lake, wooden boats of various sizes are everywhere.
Nyaung Shwe, a small yet pleasant township in Taunggyi district, is the base for those who want to explore the lake area. Tourists on package tours stay in more expensive hotels overlooking the placid water.
January and February are the best months to go weather-wise but Nyaung Shwe and Inle Lake are at their most exciting in October during the Phaung Daw Oo Pagoda Festival, when four Buddha Images are taken around the lake in a gilded barge pulled by hundreds of leg-rowers in long canoes in front. Rowing competitions are also held. Pilgrims from all over the country come to this festival, so guesthouses and hotels fill up quickly. Don't be too hesitant when you find one or you'll end up sleeping in a monastery.
The best way of getting around Nyaung Shwe is by bicycle and there are several bike rental shops on the both sides of the main thoroughfare. Local teashops dot the streets, offering plenty of sweet snacks as well as hot milky tea.
I avoid cycling into the crowded Mingalar Market during the day, as this trading place is very busy with buyers from the nearby ethnic villages. The market sells everything from tomatoes to thanaka powder, which local people rub on their faces to protect the skin from the sun. The night market is set up on the main street just before sunset with a handful of food stalls offering such delicacies as Shan noodles and barbecue fish with chilli dips.
To get a sense of this vast lake at the foot of the blue mountain ridges of Menetaung, you need to take a boat ride. You'll find passenger boats lined up near by the bridge to the west of town.
Inle lake has an estimated surface area of 116 square kilometres and is perched at an altitude of 880 metres, which means you need two blankets in winter. It's Burma's second largest freshwater lake - the largest one is Indawgyi Lake in Kachin State.
Because the lake is covered in reeds and floating plants, Intha fishermen are known for their unique leg rowing, which involves standing at the stern of the boat on one leg with the other wrapped around the oar.
The fishermen live and work in stilt houses built over the water. They also grow vegetables in floating gardens that rise and fall with the tides. The way of living gives the perception of floating villages, floating gardens, as well as floating markets in the authentic sense of the word.
The water is crystal clear in many parts, allowing sight of the lake floor up to three metres below, with villages, temples and gardens dotting the network of canals rather than the open lake. The Intha usually row out to the open lake to fish. Each small flat-bottomed boat carries a cone-shaped bamboo contraption lined with a mesh net and open at the top. When he arrives at a fishing spot, the fisherman presses the large side of the cone to the bottom of the shallow lake with his feet to trap the fish. He then uses the oar to hit the water surface, presumably to scare the fish, who then swim into the net.
Small waterway channels allow for a close-up view of the floating gardens, which are made by matting reeds that grow around the lake in long buoyant rows. The farmer gathers mud from the lake's floor to pile on top and mixes it with hyacinth weed for fertilisation. Green and red tomatoes grow in abundance alongside these small streams, making Inle Lake the largest producer of tomatoes in Shan state.
Most tourists take a day trip around the northern part of the lake stopping at a weaving village where lotus thread is still used to weave textile. A scarf made from natural dyed lotus thread scarf is impressively velvety to the touch but I wince when I see the price: it's more than my flight from Heho back to Rangoon.
A lot of small boat vendors try to sell their silver accessories just outside a silversmith workshop, paddling along the boat offering lovely ear rings or necklaces "at good prices".
The Intha are Buddhist and there are more than 100 Buddhist monasteries and shrines in and around the lake. Among the most popular is Nga Phe Kyaung near Ywama village. Visitors can stroll around the wooden monastery, pay respect to the old Buddha images and be entertained by cats that the monks have trained to jump through small hoops for donations.
If visiting the Phaung Daw Oo pagoda outside the festival, the golden barge designed as a hintha bird can be viewed in a boat garage next to the temple building. When the grand 18-day festival is held at the end of the Buddhist Lent known as the month of Thadingyut, four Buddha images covered thickly with gold leaves are borne on a royal barge and taken throughout the lake.
The accompanying fair, dances and races are surely sufficiently intriguing to make anyone want to plan ahead for the upcoming Phaung Daw Oo event. For visitors like us, the most exciting event will almost certainly be the leg-rowing boat races. Inle Lake is the only place on earth to witness such an extraordinary act.

A good life in far Siam

Subhatra Bhumiprabhas
Special to The Nation February 27, 2012 1:00 am

The harried sailors of the Portuguese Empire had compelling reasons to settle in Asia

The Portuguese sailors had done their share. Throughout the first half of the 16th century they had ventured across the seas in a demonstration of Western might that enriched their monarch and created an empire. But that empire was already on the wane as the century drew to a close - the Spanish and Dutch were in the ascendant.
For many of those Portuguese sailors, the new lands they'd found offered a better life than their weakened and vengeful homeland could, and Siam offered the best of all.
Portugal's rise and fall in Asia was recounted at last month's conference commemorating the 500th anniversary of Thai-Portuguese relations. Professor Nidhi Eoseewong, in his keynote speech "Navigation, Spices and Faith", marvelled at how a country of just a million citizens was able to forge a globe-spanning empire.
Portugal's century of power in Asia began in 1498 when Vasco da Gama's fleet landed in India at Calicut. In the name of trade, its explorers gradually expanded their sphere of influence - by any means necessary - and ultimately controlled the spice trade across South and Southeast Asia.
It's been estimated that Portugal's oriental mission required the dispatching of some 2,400 men a year throughout the 16th century.
Asian merchants had never before dealt with a foreign government, only private businessmen from afar - or pirates - said Assistant Professor of history Suthachai Yimprasert of Chulalongkorn University.
By 1500 the Portuguese had a thriving trading post at Cochin (now Kochi) on India's western coast, which they ruled well into the next century, and by 1510 they had an Indian state of their own, centred on Goa - and this they kept until violently forced out 1961. India chooses not to celebrate its own half-millennium of relations with Lisbon.
From this Estado da India, the Europeans launched their forays into Southeast Asia, with the prize being the capture of the spice trade's centrifugal core, Malacca. This they seized in 1511. All that remained was to secure the network of outposts, such as the Kingdom of Ayutthaya.
It soon became apparent, however, that while Asian commodities, especially the spices, were in high demand in Europe, Asians weren't interested in anything the West proffered as barter. The Portuguese royal court realised that trade could not be sustained, Nidhi pointed out.
"The Portuguese had only cannon and muskets to offer, but Asians quickly learned how to make these weapons themselves."
Adding to the empire's woes were chronic mismanagement, corruption, bureaucratic red tape and the wrath of ill-treated sailors. Nidhi pinned the blame on the centralisation of power under absolute monarchy, a common failing of autocrats throughout history.
Despite enjoying immense profits from the Asian spice trade, the Portuguese court overlooked the country's fiscal decay and ignored the wellbeing of the citizenry. It spent its spice income lavishly and kept the lid on domestic insurrections by buying the loyalty of local leaders.
Meanwhile the sailors who brought home the wealth were left to suffer, dismissed by the Lisbon elite as expendable, low-class rabble. Mammoth, four-storey ships, carrying 500 to 600 sailors each, set out for Asia on years-long voyages rife with risk. In half a century, around 180,000 seamen took that risk, on nearly 500 excursions in total.
Something like 12 per cent of the ships never reached their destination, wrecked by storms or inept captains.
So it is understandable that many of the crewmen chose not to chance the journey home, particularly after Lisbon began trading more in African slaves than Asian spices. Many sailors established their own lucrative dealings in the East as traders or pirates, while hundreds of others saw a brighter future in working for Asia's rulers.
In 1538 there were about 300 Portuguese tradesmen living in Pattani and 120 Portuguese mercenaries serving King Chairacha of Ayutthaya. In all, an estimated 16,000 Caucasian Portuguese settled down in Asian ports during the 16th century.
The communities they established eventually became "local" communities thanks to the Europeans' ease in assimilating, Nidhi said, so much so that they happily broke off all relations with their homeland.
A French account indicates that the Portuguese in Ayutthaya during the reign of King Narai the following century numbered 6,000.
Their legacy remains in evidence across the region, in the languages, architecture, food and, often, the colour of people's skin.
Nidhi pointed out, though, that relations between Portugal and Ayutthaya were "colourless" - neither state was capable of controlling the other, notwithstanding the Europeans' use of brute force in Malacca, India and elsewhere in Asia.

O-Net test 'stuck in 20th century', academic says

Chularat Saengpassa,
Wannapa Khaopa
The Nation February 27, 2012 1:00 am

Apparent flaws in the Ordinary National Educational Test (O-Net) have provided another strong reminder that Thailand's education system badly needs improvement.

For years, agencies have lamented the falling average of O-Net scores among students in all subjects. But if O-Net exam papers are not really well designed and mired with mistakes, how can we expect the students to do well?
Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) academic Dr Dilaka Lathapipat pointed out that while the ISA test reflected the vision of the 21st century, Thailand's O-Net was stuck to the 20th century.
"The test-design standards for these two tests are much different," Dilaka said.
If the test designers cannot provide reliable and efficient tests, teachers and students will lack trusted indicators of their performance. Relevant agencies, in that case, will also find it hard to check which areas they should concentrate on to improve for the country's educational system.

As part of the country's educational reform, the National Institute of Educational Testing Service (NIETS) sprang into operation and the O-Net was launched.
O-Net has also replaced the decades-long academically tough university exams.
From its inception, NIETS talked about developing standardised tests but years passed and the results were far from satisfactory.
Many universities became so worried about the O-Net ability to select qualified students for some of their fields that they allocated fewer and fewer seats for the central admission system, which has used O-Net scores as admission criteria.
Apart from such reactions from the universities, students and parents have often criticised the O-Net questions too. To them, some questions appear either ridiculous or rather stupid. Multiple choices given in each question have also raised eyebrows.
In fact, when the former director of NIETS looked at one O-Net question for Mathayom students this year, she gave an incorrect answer.
Dr Utumporn Jamornmann, who is now an adviser to the Ombudsman, chose "b" when presented with the following choices for the question - "If you have a sexual urge, what should you do?" a) Ask friends if you can play football together; b) Consult family members; c) Try to sleep; d) Go out with a friend of the opposite sex; or e) Invite a close friend to watch a movie together."
According to NIETS director Dr Samphan Phanphrut, the answer was "a".
But critics pointed out that both "a" and "b" could been seen as correct answers for boys; furthermore, in the case of most girls, "a" would be a strange option, and therefore not a viable choice. Utumporn said good test questions must be clear and in line with facts.
Test takers who sat the O-Net, so far, did not think NIETS was successful in ensuring that only good questions appeared in test papers.
Institute for Research and Quality Development Foundation chairman Chainarong Indhara-meesup said any minor mistake could ruin the credibility and reliability of the tests.
"If internal panels can't notice the minor mistakes, recruit the help of outsiders," he suggested.
He also recommended that test-design panels first try out some questions with a small group of students so as to test children's reactions.
"In my opinion, tests should use open-ended questions. A few sentences of answers written by students will tell a lot of things about what students know," Chainarong said.
He said when it came to assessment of educational quality, agencies should not tighten the budget too much.
"Look at the PISA exam paper, it contains no multiple choices. We have to adjust to improve," he |said.
The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) performed its first test in 2000, but its exam has won respect already across the world. It is a worldwide evaluation in OECD member countries (currently there are 65 member nations) of 15-year-old school pupils' scholastic performance, performed first in 2000 and repeated every three years.
TDRI vice-chairman Dr Somkiat Tangkitvanich said he was not an educational expert but he noticed the need for the NIETS to improve its services.
"Let's do some research for test designing. I also think it's a good idea to publicly announce answers of already-used test questions and explain the rationale of the questions," he said.
TDRI's Dilaka said the tests were tools to evaluate not just students' academic performance but also the performance of teachers and schools.
"Good tests should determine children's ability to apply knowledge to their daily life," he commented.
Dilaka said the United States had a clear policy to put emphasis on subjects crucial for the development of the country.
If tests reveal the knowledge of those important subjects is still inadequate on the part of students, schools will be required to reduce learning hours for other subjects and allocate more time for the important stuff.

--------------------------------

The road to reform got a little less bumpy today

Friday, 13 January 2012 19:58 Mizzima News

(Editorial) – Burma is on the path to peaceful development but there will be more challenges ahead, in spite of a joyous day in which most of the prominent political prisoners were released.

The scenes of joy over the unexpected release of political prisoners today indicates real change. Those released included well-known 88 Generation Student leader Min Ko Naing, the Shan ethnic nationalities leader Hkun Htun Oo and one of the Saffron Revolution leaders, Ashin Gambia. Even the formerly powerful ex-prime minister and Military Intelligence Chief Khin Nyunt was sprung from incarceration. This is an indication it is not business as usual in Burma. Today’s release of political prisoners was preceded by concrete reformist actions by the new government, notably the decision to halt the Myitsone Dam project financed by China and the cancellation of the 400-megawatt coal-fired power plant in the Dawei Project of Italian-Thai company.

Opening the gates of the prisons today for these people indicates the government has confidence in national reconciliation and is moving towards a more democratic society. But more challenges lie ahead. Burma needs judiciary system, reform of the suffocating bureaucratic system and serious attention to infrastructure and the struggling health and education systems.

That there was a delay in seeing this release was an indication of the struggle behind the scenes between the reformists and the old guard.

Talk of release has been on people’s lips for months. Political leaders like 88-Generation students, the Shan ethnic leaders Khun Htun Oo and former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt are important figures in politics and they have the potential to disturb the tranquillity of the streets and the government's seven-point Road Map to full democracy. However, after the historic move of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to jump into the electoral process, things have truly changed. With the acknowledgement by Western governments and the support of opposition forces – bar a radical minority communist group – Thein Sein’s government appears to have gained the confidence to move forward pursing the electoral process.

Nobody would have believed this if they had been told about it a year ago. President Thein Sein understands that national reconciliation includes the release of political prisoners. This process has been accelerated by today’s action.

There appears to be a tacit understanding for the opposition to stay off the streets. No demonstrations are in the offing. But a lot will depend on whether changes seep through to the grassroots. Certainly the atmosphere on the streets of Rangoon this week was one of more openness with discussion of politics no longer a taboo. Important changes are needed in the country’s budget in sectors like health and education, meaningful change to bureaucratic mechanisms, local administrations, and the judiciary. If this happens in a relatively short period of time, the popularity of the Thein Sein government’s moves will remain and a sense of forgiveness of the previous regime may be realized. If this fails to happen, there may be mass protests with the focus on the environment, land confiscation, corruption, and possibly over the continued armed confrontation in ethnic areas, if tension still exists.

Might there be a backlash from hardliners? Unlikely. The interesting point here is that the military’s Commander in Chief General Min Aung Hlaing was visiting Thailand when the amnesty was announced. Min Aung Hlaing is a member of the 11-member National Security Council, which has the final say on matter like amnesty of prisoners. This indicates little or no concern that things will fall apart should he depart Burma’s shores.