Xi Jinping's success so far: Taking control by following Deng Xiaoping
By Jaime FlorCruz, CNN Beijing bureau chief
August 29, 2014 -- Updated 0754 GMT (1554 HKT)
Xi has become the most powerful Chinese leader since the death of Deng Xiaoping in 1997
China watchers compare Xi's ruling strategy to those of Mao Zedong and Deng
China insider: "Xi truly believes he has a historic mission to achieve the China Dream"
Editor's note: CNN's Beijing bureau chief Jaime FlorCruz has lived and worked in China since 1971. He studied Chinese history at Peking University (1977-81) and was TIME Magazine's Beijing correspondent and bureau chief (1982-2000).
(CNN) -- The 110th birthday of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping was celebrated on August 22 with an exhibition, a television biopic, and a series of national events. The "paramount leader" ruled for more than a decade, kick-starting China's market economic reform.
All these events have prompted much talk not just on Deng but also on Chinese president Xi Jinping.
Straws in the wind here hint that China is again entering an era of strongman rule.
Less than two years after Xi took over the top Communist Party post, Xi's leading position is looking virtually unassailable.
He now holds the top posts in the party, state and the military. Recently, he has cleverly maneuvered to put himself at the head of two new supra-ministerial bodies.
The "central leading group on national security" gives him the final say on diplomatic, military, security, police and intelligence institutions.
'On China:' Can Xi Jinping lead? Xi Jinping to boost economic growth The road ahead for China's new leader
The other leading group on "deepening of economic reform" gives him oversight on economic affairs, clipping the power of Premier Li Keqiang, China's No. 2 leader and the de facto COO of the economy.
This, China analysts say, signifies that Xi has become the most powerful Chinese leader since the death of Deng in 1997.
Mao or Deng?
Xi's shrewd moves makes China watchers wonder: Is he mimicking Mao, who wielded absolute power during his decades-long rule? Is he building a cult of personality that befits an omnipotent modern-day emperor?
To be sure, Xi does not approve of totally repudiating Mao.
"To completely negate Mao Zedong would lead to the demise of the Communist Party of China and to great chaos in China," Xi said early last year.
He rejected "historical nihilism," instead advocating "not being negative about the 30 years before Deng Xiaoping's economic reform."
READ: The Xi Jinping cipher: Reformer or a 'dictator?'
Still, some China experts say Xi is not following Mao's policies.
"If you look at what he does and how he does it, I don't see much Maoism," said Ezra Vogel, a retired Harvard professor and author of the book "Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China." "I see much more of Deng Xiaoping."
Vogel recalled how Xi chose Shenzhen as the site of his first "inspection tour" as president. The Special Economic Zone is where Deng Xiaoping experimented with his market-reform in the early 1980s. Xi referred to that in his speech commemorating the 110th anniversary of the birth of the late Deng.
"It was a very sentimental thing," Vogel noted. "I think the effect of the speech and what Xi was trying to say is that 'Ok, Deng was a bold leader who tried to make changes. I'm going to make some changes too.'"
Like Deng, Vogel explained, Xi believes that the country must be strong.
"But he felt in the end that only if the country had enough internal stability could you make changes," the Harvard professor said. "And he was quite cautious about releasing and allowing more freedom until the conditions were met. It looks to me that Xi Jinping was very much following it."
Keeping friends close
The Harvard historian has not seen much sign that Xi wants to be more democratic.
Xi is poised to make big changes because he truly believes he has a historic mission to achieve his China Dream. He wants to keep the Communist Party in power but he also wants to push China to the next level.
"He has been very tough on corruption, and the way I see it now he's beginning to talk about the law, the legal reform," he said.
Early this month the Communist Party announced that Zhou Yongkang, the former public security minister and member of China's Politburo Standing Committee, would be investigated "on suspicion of grave violations of discipline."
This is by far the biggest step Xi has taken in his anti-corruption campaign, confirming his pledge to take on the "tigers" (top officials) as well as "flies"(minor violators).
Like Deng, Vogel added, Xi wants to centralize things in his own hands. "He wants to be a strong leader. He wants to make bold decisions. And he wants to make it very clear that he's in charge."
READ: China: President Xi Jinping's one-year report card
Xi is in a hurry to take charge. Since he took over top posts, he has been moving allies into key Party, government and military positions.
"It took (former president) Jiang Zemin 10 years to promote his trusted commanders to top military posts," says one Chinese source who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the topic. "It took (Xi's predecessor) Hu Jintao four to do the same. Xi is doing it in two years."
Liu Yuan, an army general and, like Xi, a well-connected "princeling" (he is the son of the late Chinese president Liu Shaoqi), is poised to be elevated into the military commission, the source said.
Current Shanghai party chief Han Zheng is also expected to move to Beijing to join the Leading Group on Economic Reform.
Top-level reshuffles are expected to be finalized during a policy meeting, called a "plenum," of the nearly 400 members of the Communist Party's elite scheduled in October.
After this round of changes, the Chinese source said, "about 70% of top leaders in the provinces and major cities and some ministries will have been replaced or reshuffled. It's the second stage of Xi's plan to put in his people."
"Historic mission"
Supporters of Xi's attempts to accumulate power say he needs to do so to deal with a host of pressing challenges.
I asked whether this makes him a dictator in the making.
"Every leader in the world does this," the source said. "If Hillary (Clinton) becomes the next U.S. president, she will also do the same -- put people you trust in critical posts." Leading China's transition, he said, is an extraordinarily difficult job.
Xi's admirers say he a pragmatist who is more goal-oriented than ideologically driven.
"It's not really a question of whether Xi is a conservative or a reformist," said the Chinese source. "He is poised to make big changes because he truly believes he has a historic mission to achieve his China Dream. He wants to keep the Communist Party in power but he also wants to push China to the next level."
How Xi will achieve his goals remains undefined, but one thing is clear: Xi does not welcome unsolicited advice.
Earlier, he had been heard saying, off-the-cuff: "Westerners with full stomachs should not be lecturing China."
Said in the fashion of Mao and Deng.
READ: Chinese leader Xi Jinping's 2014 challenge: Resolving an identity crisis?
This blog contains lots of articles and world news. Its aim is to be a source of knowledge for people to read and think, and thus make an intuitive decision on how to lead their lives fruitfully in every-day livings.Under the concept of Today-Readers are Tomorrow Leaders.' The world will be better because we begin to change for the best.
วันศุกร์ที่ 29 สิงหาคม พ.ศ. 2557
วันอาทิตย์ที่ 17 สิงหาคม พ.ศ. 2557
Will Iraq's Nuri al-Maliki go without a fight? 5 things to know
By Tim Lister, CNN
August 13, 2014 -- Updated 1608 GMT (0008 HKT)
Iraqi power struggle comes amid crisis
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Iraq's President ends months of deadlock by nominating Islamist Shia Haider al-Abadi as next Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's current Prime Minister, says he will fight al-Abadi's nomination in court
Political paralysis has impeded Iraq's ability to fight ISIS militants who have seized large parts of the country
Al-Abadi's appointment has drawn praise from the White House, Iran and Saudi Arabia
(CNN) -- There may not be many issues on which the Islamic Republic of Iran and the White House agree, but dumping Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in favor of Haider al-Abadi is one of them. The message from a growing number of actors inside and outside Iraq is the same: Maliki must go if the country is to be saved.
Iraq's unofficial power-sharing agreement dictates that the President is a Kurd, the Speaker of Parliament a Sunni and the Prime Minister a Shia. This division of power among Iraq's three main groups has helped to prevent Maliki's growing authoritarianism during his eight years as premier.
In 2011, a Sunni Vice-President -- Tariq al-Hashimi -- fled to Kurdish northern Iraq after Maliki ordered his arrest and accused him of terrorism. The Prime Minister also suppressed Sunni protests in western Iraq, giving the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) the opening it needed in courting Sunni tribes.
Now the much-maligned constitution may have come to the rescue. It stipulates that the President -- currently Fuad Masum, who was elected on July 24th -- should call on the leader of the largest bloc in parliament to form a new government within 30 days. Maliki said that was him as leader of the State of Law bloc, but Maoum was open to other interpretations. Shia politicians in the broader but loose National Alliance wrote to the President Monday to say they could muster more votes than Maliki.
It was -- in essence -- a coup within the Prime Minister's own party.
So, can a new government be formed?
Coalition-building in Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein has never been easy, but Nuri al-Maliki has arguably made it harder through his growing reliance on a Shia bloc loyal to him. He has built up special forces outside the regular army and accentuated sectarianism in Iraqi politics. In the process, he has alienated the Kurdish and Sunni minorities.
Thousands of Iraqi refugees flee ISIS U.S. sending military advisers to Iraq U.S. airstrikes help Kurds recapture town On the frontlines in the battle with ISIS
Photos: Iraq under siege
After April's elections, there was a sense of paralysis. It took several attempts just to get a quorum in the new parliament so a new President could be appointed. Maliki stayed on as Prime Minister, believing opposition to him would crumble because no other viable candidate would emerge.
The rapid advance by ISIS and the growing disenchantment of the Shia establishment with Maliki's obstinate refusal to give way broke the logjam. Two events in the last few days seem to have turned doubters into opponents.
EXCLUSIVE: The moment Iraq's Yazidis were plucked from mountain
The first was ISIS' capture of the strategically vital Mosul dam, just as the fighters also put pressure on Kurdish towns to the north. The dam is a critical link in central Iraq's power and water supplies -- but its destruction would flood a huge tract of the country.
The second (and possibly related) event was the strongest suggestion yet from Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani -- the undisputed leader of Iraq's Shia -- that Maliki's time was up. Through a representative at Friday prayers last week, Sistani warned that politicians who put their self-interest before the national interest were committing a "grave mistake."
Sistani's position created fissures within the State of Law coalition and Maliki's own Dawa Party, according to Ayham Kamel of the Eurasia Group political consultancy firm, "and provided members of the State of Law coalition with political cover to defect to the National Alliance."
Who is Haider al-Abadi?
Haider al-Abadi was born in Baghdad in 1952. A long-time member of the Dawa Party (he is said to have joined as a teenager) he was one of thousands of prominent Iraqis -- especially Shia -- who left the country during Saddam Hussein's rule. Al-Abadi left to study abroad after receiving a bachelor's degree in 1975, and stayed away as Hussein tightened his grip on the country. Two of his brothers were not so lucky; they were executed in 1982 for belonging to the Dawa Party. The following year, the regime cancelled Haider's passport.
Al-Abadi spent many years in Britain, where he received a doctorate in electrical engineering at the University of Manchester. His father, who had been a prominent Iraqi official, was accused of insufficient loyalty to the regime and was forced to retire in 1979. He moved to Britain and lived there until his death.
After Hussein was ousted, al-Abadi returned to Iraq in 2003 and became Communications Minister in the interim government, where his language skills and international contacts proved valuable. According to his biography, al-Abadi was put in charge of ridding the northern Iraqi city of Tal Afar of al Qaeda in 2005, and successfully brought tribes together in doing so. It may prove to have been useful experience; Tal Afar is now under the control of ISIS.
In interviews in recent weeks he has stressed the need for unity and compromise in the face of a common enemy, saying all groups had been weakened in the face of the militant threat. He has argued fervently against the division of Iraq and said he is open to help from Iran (where many Dawa Party members lived in exile.)
What happens to Maliki?
Despite the growing odds against him, Nuri al-Maliki is not going quietly. He has deployed militia loyal to him around and inside the Green Zone -- the center of federal power in Iraq -- and says he will challenge the President's move in court over a "grave constitutional breach."
"Maliki will pressure the constitutional court to issue a clearer ruling that prevents Abadi from assuming power," says Kamel of the Eurasia Group.
Maliki also remains head of the armed forces and intelligence services, and commands the Defense and Interior ministries. Kamel suggests "Maliki could also approve a new military offensive against ISIS and claim that a leadership change would jeopardize the security environment."
But the army has made it clear that its loyalty is to the state, not the Commander-in-Chief. Senior commanders have been alienated by Maliki's formation of militia and special brigades that have taken resources and power from the military, as well as political patronage in senior appointments. Loyalty was prized above ability.
There is the danger that die-hard loyalists to Maliki could put up a fight, drawing the security forces into a battle for control of Baghdad just as they face ISIS not far from the capital. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry alluded to this risk Monday, saying: "The government formation process is critical in terms of sustaining stability and calm in Iraq and our hope is that Mr. Maliki will not stir those waters."
The Institute for the Study of War notes that the powerful Iranian-backed Shia militia, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, has already abandoned Maliki. And it adds that "Iranian-directed militia activities will likely neutralize other elements of the ISF (Iraqi Security Forces) that are loyal to Maliki." Even so, groups like the Badr Brigades -- if they decide to support Maliki -- have the potential to stir trouble.
Some observers suggest Maliki be given a ceremonial position -- perhaps a Vice-Presidency -- to provide him with a dignified exit. But for now he appears to have been outmaneuvered by the same tactics he used so effectively in the past. As Joel Wing writes in his Musings on Iraq blog, "Rather than finding the chinks in his opponents' armor like he did in 2010, it was [his own] State of Law who ended up breaking apart. Now he's left to verbal threats, claims of illegality, and intimidating maneuvers."
"With all the support Abadi is garnering, it will all be over when he presents his ruling coalition for approval to parliament in the next 30 days," writes Wing.
What do the Kurds and Sunnis think?
So far much of the political drama has played out among the Shia parties in Baghdad. Sunni and Kurdish groups are preoccupied with more pressing problems in the face of the ISIS threat, and are waiting to see how al-Abadi follows through on his conciliatory language.
The Dawa Party's Shia Islamist complexion may make Sunnis and Kurds wary of al-Abadi. After all, until recent weeks he was a close aide of Maliki, and therefore -- in the eyes of many Sunnis and Kurds -- guilty by association with an increasingly sectarian Shia program.
The Dawa Party also favors a strong central government, and the Kurds may be concerned that their gains amid the chaos of the last few months -- especially in taking control of Kirkuk and its oil fields -- will be challenged.
Their veteran leader, Massoud Barzani, has said that recent events have forever changed the nature of Iraq -- and suggested a referendum on Kurdish independence may be held.
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden urged Barzani "to work closely with Dr. Abadi as he works to build a diverse, inclusive government," according to a statement from the White House. But the Kurds will want to see concessions on what they would regard as a fairer division of Iraqi oil revenues, as well as more generous supplies of weaponry from Baghdad with which to fight ISIS.
There is also the issue of the Kurds' unilateral sale of oil, which has been vociferously opposed by the government in Baghdad.
What's the view of the international community?
There is rare unanimity that al-Abadi, while not exactly a consensus figure, has to be given a chance to "reach across the aisle" in the face of the existential threat posed by ISIS, which now controls swathes of north and western Iraq.
Obama has already reached out to al-Abadi to urge him to form a cabinet representative of Iraq's ethnic and religious communities. And al-Abadi has made the right noises in response. The White House said he had "expressed his intent to move expeditiously to form a broad-based, inclusive government" in a phone call with the President.
The language out of Tehran has been more restrained, but equally pointed. Ali Shamkhani, a member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on Tuesday his country backed the legal procedure taken in the nomination of the Prime Minister. Saudi Arabia -- which has long loathed Maliki -- also joined the chorus, congratulating President Masum on nominating al-Abadi.
The question is whether, if and when Maliki is forced from office, the Obama administration will step up its participation in the campaign against ISIS. John Kerry has already (not surprisingly) ruled out ground troops. But he said Tuesday: "What we are really looking for is a way to support Iraq, support their forces whether it's training, equipment of one sort or another that can help them stand on their own two feet."
To Max Boot at the Council on Foreign Relations, the question is: "Will we stick to a minimalist containment strategy designed to prevent ISIS from taking Erbil and murdering the Yazidis? Or will we implement a much more ambitious strategy to enable the defeat of ISIS?"
If the latter, the U.S. may need to get the new government's assent for arming Kurdish Peshmerga forces directly, so ISIS can be challenged on two fronts.
U.S. airstrikes appear to have stemmed ISIS' momentum in the Sinjar area near the Syrian border and east of Mosul for now, and better coordination between the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces will further pressurize ISIS. But the militants are resilient, well-organized and have seized weaponry such as armored personnel carriers and tanks from Iraqi armories.
Success on the battlefield -- long awaited but so far unrealized -- may be al-Abadi's best ally as he tries to stitch together a majority in parliament.
....................................................
By Tim Lister, CNN
August 13, 2014 -- Updated 1608 GMT (0008 HKT)
Iraqi power struggle comes amid crisis
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Iraq's President ends months of deadlock by nominating Islamist Shia Haider al-Abadi as next Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's current Prime Minister, says he will fight al-Abadi's nomination in court
Political paralysis has impeded Iraq's ability to fight ISIS militants who have seized large parts of the country
Al-Abadi's appointment has drawn praise from the White House, Iran and Saudi Arabia
(CNN) -- There may not be many issues on which the Islamic Republic of Iran and the White House agree, but dumping Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in favor of Haider al-Abadi is one of them. The message from a growing number of actors inside and outside Iraq is the same: Maliki must go if the country is to be saved.
Iraq's unofficial power-sharing agreement dictates that the President is a Kurd, the Speaker of Parliament a Sunni and the Prime Minister a Shia. This division of power among Iraq's three main groups has helped to prevent Maliki's growing authoritarianism during his eight years as premier.
In 2011, a Sunni Vice-President -- Tariq al-Hashimi -- fled to Kurdish northern Iraq after Maliki ordered his arrest and accused him of terrorism. The Prime Minister also suppressed Sunni protests in western Iraq, giving the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) the opening it needed in courting Sunni tribes.
Now the much-maligned constitution may have come to the rescue. It stipulates that the President -- currently Fuad Masum, who was elected on July 24th -- should call on the leader of the largest bloc in parliament to form a new government within 30 days. Maliki said that was him as leader of the State of Law bloc, but Maoum was open to other interpretations. Shia politicians in the broader but loose National Alliance wrote to the President Monday to say they could muster more votes than Maliki.
It was -- in essence -- a coup within the Prime Minister's own party.
So, can a new government be formed?
Coalition-building in Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein has never been easy, but Nuri al-Maliki has arguably made it harder through his growing reliance on a Shia bloc loyal to him. He has built up special forces outside the regular army and accentuated sectarianism in Iraqi politics. In the process, he has alienated the Kurdish and Sunni minorities.
Thousands of Iraqi refugees flee ISIS U.S. sending military advisers to Iraq U.S. airstrikes help Kurds recapture town On the frontlines in the battle with ISIS
Photos: Iraq under siege
After April's elections, there was a sense of paralysis. It took several attempts just to get a quorum in the new parliament so a new President could be appointed. Maliki stayed on as Prime Minister, believing opposition to him would crumble because no other viable candidate would emerge.
The rapid advance by ISIS and the growing disenchantment of the Shia establishment with Maliki's obstinate refusal to give way broke the logjam. Two events in the last few days seem to have turned doubters into opponents.
EXCLUSIVE: The moment Iraq's Yazidis were plucked from mountain
The first was ISIS' capture of the strategically vital Mosul dam, just as the fighters also put pressure on Kurdish towns to the north. The dam is a critical link in central Iraq's power and water supplies -- but its destruction would flood a huge tract of the country.
The second (and possibly related) event was the strongest suggestion yet from Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani -- the undisputed leader of Iraq's Shia -- that Maliki's time was up. Through a representative at Friday prayers last week, Sistani warned that politicians who put their self-interest before the national interest were committing a "grave mistake."
Sistani's position created fissures within the State of Law coalition and Maliki's own Dawa Party, according to Ayham Kamel of the Eurasia Group political consultancy firm, "and provided members of the State of Law coalition with political cover to defect to the National Alliance."
Who is Haider al-Abadi?
Haider al-Abadi was born in Baghdad in 1952. A long-time member of the Dawa Party (he is said to have joined as a teenager) he was one of thousands of prominent Iraqis -- especially Shia -- who left the country during Saddam Hussein's rule. Al-Abadi left to study abroad after receiving a bachelor's degree in 1975, and stayed away as Hussein tightened his grip on the country. Two of his brothers were not so lucky; they were executed in 1982 for belonging to the Dawa Party. The following year, the regime cancelled Haider's passport.
Al-Abadi spent many years in Britain, where he received a doctorate in electrical engineering at the University of Manchester. His father, who had been a prominent Iraqi official, was accused of insufficient loyalty to the regime and was forced to retire in 1979. He moved to Britain and lived there until his death.
After Hussein was ousted, al-Abadi returned to Iraq in 2003 and became Communications Minister in the interim government, where his language skills and international contacts proved valuable. According to his biography, al-Abadi was put in charge of ridding the northern Iraqi city of Tal Afar of al Qaeda in 2005, and successfully brought tribes together in doing so. It may prove to have been useful experience; Tal Afar is now under the control of ISIS.
In interviews in recent weeks he has stressed the need for unity and compromise in the face of a common enemy, saying all groups had been weakened in the face of the militant threat. He has argued fervently against the division of Iraq and said he is open to help from Iran (where many Dawa Party members lived in exile.)
What happens to Maliki?
Despite the growing odds against him, Nuri al-Maliki is not going quietly. He has deployed militia loyal to him around and inside the Green Zone -- the center of federal power in Iraq -- and says he will challenge the President's move in court over a "grave constitutional breach."
"Maliki will pressure the constitutional court to issue a clearer ruling that prevents Abadi from assuming power," says Kamel of the Eurasia Group.
Maliki also remains head of the armed forces and intelligence services, and commands the Defense and Interior ministries. Kamel suggests "Maliki could also approve a new military offensive against ISIS and claim that a leadership change would jeopardize the security environment."
But the army has made it clear that its loyalty is to the state, not the Commander-in-Chief. Senior commanders have been alienated by Maliki's formation of militia and special brigades that have taken resources and power from the military, as well as political patronage in senior appointments. Loyalty was prized above ability.
There is the danger that die-hard loyalists to Maliki could put up a fight, drawing the security forces into a battle for control of Baghdad just as they face ISIS not far from the capital. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry alluded to this risk Monday, saying: "The government formation process is critical in terms of sustaining stability and calm in Iraq and our hope is that Mr. Maliki will not stir those waters."
The Institute for the Study of War notes that the powerful Iranian-backed Shia militia, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, has already abandoned Maliki. And it adds that "Iranian-directed militia activities will likely neutralize other elements of the ISF (Iraqi Security Forces) that are loyal to Maliki." Even so, groups like the Badr Brigades -- if they decide to support Maliki -- have the potential to stir trouble.
Some observers suggest Maliki be given a ceremonial position -- perhaps a Vice-Presidency -- to provide him with a dignified exit. But for now he appears to have been outmaneuvered by the same tactics he used so effectively in the past. As Joel Wing writes in his Musings on Iraq blog, "Rather than finding the chinks in his opponents' armor like he did in 2010, it was [his own] State of Law who ended up breaking apart. Now he's left to verbal threats, claims of illegality, and intimidating maneuvers."
"With all the support Abadi is garnering, it will all be over when he presents his ruling coalition for approval to parliament in the next 30 days," writes Wing.
What do the Kurds and Sunnis think?
So far much of the political drama has played out among the Shia parties in Baghdad. Sunni and Kurdish groups are preoccupied with more pressing problems in the face of the ISIS threat, and are waiting to see how al-Abadi follows through on his conciliatory language.
The Dawa Party's Shia Islamist complexion may make Sunnis and Kurds wary of al-Abadi. After all, until recent weeks he was a close aide of Maliki, and therefore -- in the eyes of many Sunnis and Kurds -- guilty by association with an increasingly sectarian Shia program.
The Dawa Party also favors a strong central government, and the Kurds may be concerned that their gains amid the chaos of the last few months -- especially in taking control of Kirkuk and its oil fields -- will be challenged.
Their veteran leader, Massoud Barzani, has said that recent events have forever changed the nature of Iraq -- and suggested a referendum on Kurdish independence may be held.
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden urged Barzani "to work closely with Dr. Abadi as he works to build a diverse, inclusive government," according to a statement from the White House. But the Kurds will want to see concessions on what they would regard as a fairer division of Iraqi oil revenues, as well as more generous supplies of weaponry from Baghdad with which to fight ISIS.
There is also the issue of the Kurds' unilateral sale of oil, which has been vociferously opposed by the government in Baghdad.
What's the view of the international community?
There is rare unanimity that al-Abadi, while not exactly a consensus figure, has to be given a chance to "reach across the aisle" in the face of the existential threat posed by ISIS, which now controls swathes of north and western Iraq.
Obama has already reached out to al-Abadi to urge him to form a cabinet representative of Iraq's ethnic and religious communities. And al-Abadi has made the right noises in response. The White House said he had "expressed his intent to move expeditiously to form a broad-based, inclusive government" in a phone call with the President.
The language out of Tehran has been more restrained, but equally pointed. Ali Shamkhani, a member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on Tuesday his country backed the legal procedure taken in the nomination of the Prime Minister. Saudi Arabia -- which has long loathed Maliki -- also joined the chorus, congratulating President Masum on nominating al-Abadi.
The question is whether, if and when Maliki is forced from office, the Obama administration will step up its participation in the campaign against ISIS. John Kerry has already (not surprisingly) ruled out ground troops. But he said Tuesday: "What we are really looking for is a way to support Iraq, support their forces whether it's training, equipment of one sort or another that can help them stand on their own two feet."
To Max Boot at the Council on Foreign Relations, the question is: "Will we stick to a minimalist containment strategy designed to prevent ISIS from taking Erbil and murdering the Yazidis? Or will we implement a much more ambitious strategy to enable the defeat of ISIS?"
If the latter, the U.S. may need to get the new government's assent for arming Kurdish Peshmerga forces directly, so ISIS can be challenged on two fronts.
U.S. airstrikes appear to have stemmed ISIS' momentum in the Sinjar area near the Syrian border and east of Mosul for now, and better coordination between the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces will further pressurize ISIS. But the militants are resilient, well-organized and have seized weaponry such as armored personnel carriers and tanks from Iraqi armories.
Success on the battlefield -- long awaited but so far unrealized -- may be al-Abadi's best ally as he tries to stitch together a majority in parliament.
....................................................
วันศุกร์ที่ 1 สิงหาคม พ.ศ. 2557
Lake mysteriously shows in drought-torn Tunisia
Hundreds enjoy new lake despite warnings that the water might be radioactive
Hundreds enjoy Gafsa Beach, a mysteriously lake that appeared out of nowhere in Tunisia. Photo is from the Lac de Gafsa Facebook page
Some locals are calling it a miracle. Others are calling it a curse.
Hundreds of people are flocking to the new lake dubbed Gafsa Beach (a.k.a. Lac de Gafsa) to go swimming, diving, and scuba diving, or to simply find relief from the heat, this despite warnings by local authorities who claim the lake could be radioactive.
A swimmer at Gafsa Beach in Tunisia jumps into water. Photo is from Lac de Gafsa Facebook page
The lake, which covers 2 1/2 acres and is 32 to 59 feet deep, was discovered three weeks ago and already has its own Facebook page showing people enjoying the water, but officials are at a loss to explain its origins.
A swimmer dives into water at Gafsa Beach in Tunisia. Photo is from the Lac de Gafsa Facebook page
One of the theories presented to him was that seismic activity upset the water table, causing groundwater to rise to the surface, Souid said.
“For the time being, the origins of this lake remain a mystery, but our biggest concern right now is the quality of the water,” Souid told France 24. “This region is overflowing with large deposits of phosphate, which can leave behind radioactive residue [phosphate mining is the region’s main industry].
“So, there is a real risk that this water is contaminated and carcinogenic. On the first few days, the water was a clear, turquoise blue. Now, it is greenish and filled with algae, sure signs that the water is stagnant, which means it’s a perfect breeding ground for parasites and disease.”
Unfortunately, the warnings weren’t enough to keep people away.
“The site is certainly stunning and there are many large rocks perfect for diving,” Souid told France 24. “So to truly dissuade people from coming, we’ll need something more convincing than a little warning.”
Let’s just hope Gafsa Beach turns out to be a blessing and not a curse. Only time will tell.
.......................................................................................
วันพุธที่ 30 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2557
Last crew member of Enola Gay dies in Georgia
ATLANTA (AP) — The last surviving member of the crew that
dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima once said he thought the bombing was
necessary because it shortened the war and eliminated the need for an
Allied land invasion that could have cost more lives on both sides.
But Theodore "Dutch" VanKirk also said it made him
wary of war - and that he would like to see all of the world's atomic
bombs abolished.
But VanKirk said the experience of World War II also showed him "that wars don't settle anything."
"And atomic weapons don't settle anything," he said. "I personally think there shouldn't be any atomic bombs in the world — I'd like to see them all abolished.
"But if anyone has one," he added, "I want to have one more than my enemy."
VanKirk was teamed with pilot Paul Tibbets and bombardier Tom Ferebee in Tibbets' fledgling 509th Composite Bomb Group for Special Mission No. 13.
The mission went perfectly, VanKirk told the AP. He guided the
bomber through the night sky, just 15 seconds behind schedule, he said.
As the 9,000-pound bomb nicknamed "Little Boy" fell toward the sleeping
city, he and his crewmates hoped to escape with their lives.
They didn't know whether the bomb would actually work and, if it did, whether its shockwaves would rip their plane to shreds. They counted — one thousand one, one thousand two — reaching the 43 seconds they'd been told it would take for detonation, and heard nothing.
"I think everybody in the plane concluded it was a dud. It seemed a lot longer than 43 seconds," VanKirk recalled.
Then came a bright flash. Then a shockwave. Then another shockwave.
VanKirk died Monday at the retirement home where he lived in Stone Mountain, Georgia, his son Tom VanKirk said. He was 93.
Theodore
VanKirk flew as navigator on the Enola Gay, the B-29 Superfortress that
dropped the first atomic bomb deployed in wartime over the Japanese
city of Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945.
The
bombing hastened the end of World War II. The blast and its
aftereffects killed 140,000 in Hiroshima. Three days after Hiroshima, a
second atomic bomb was dropped on Nagasaki. That blast and its aftermath
claimed 80,000 lives. Six days after the Nagasaki bombing, Japan
surrendered.
Whether the United States should have used the atomic bomb has been debated endlessly.
"I honestly believe the use of the atomic bomb saved lives in
the long run," VanKirk told The Associated Press in a 2005 interview.
"There were a lot of lives saved. Most of the lives saved were
Japanese."
But VanKirk said the experience of World War II also showed him "that wars don't settle anything."
"And atomic weapons don't settle anything," he said. "I personally think there shouldn't be any atomic bombs in the world — I'd like to see them all abolished.
"But if anyone has one," he added, "I want to have one more than my enemy."
VanKirk was teamed with pilot Paul Tibbets and bombardier Tom Ferebee in Tibbets' fledgling 509th Composite Bomb Group for Special Mission No. 13.
They didn't know whether the bomb would actually work and, if it did, whether its shockwaves would rip their plane to shreds. They counted — one thousand one, one thousand two — reaching the 43 seconds they'd been told it would take for detonation, and heard nothing.
"I think everybody in the plane concluded it was a dud. It seemed a lot longer than 43 seconds," VanKirk recalled.
Then came a bright flash. Then a shockwave. Then another shockwave.
VanKirk
stayed on with the military for a year after the war ended. Then he
went to school, earned degrees in chemical engineering and signed on
with DuPont, where he stayed until he retired in 1985. He later moved
from California to the Atlanta area to be near his daughter.
Like
many World War II veterans, VanKirk didn't talk much about his service
until much later in his life when he spoke to school groups, his son
said.
"I didn't even find out
that he was on that mission until I was 10 years old and read some old
news clippings in my grandmother's attic," Tom VanKirk told the AP in a
phone interview Tuesday.
Instead,
he and his three siblings treasured a wonderful father, who was a great
mentor and remained active and "sharp as a tack" until the end of his
life.
"I know he was recognized as a war hero, but we just knew him as a great father," Tom VanKirk said.
VanKirk's
military career was chronicled in a 2012 book, "My True Course," by
Suzanne Dietz. VanKirk was energetic, very bright and had a terrific
sense of humor, Dietz recalled Tuesday.
Interviewing
VanKirk for the book, she said, "was like sitting with your father at
the kitchen table listening to him tell stories."
A
funeral service was scheduled for VanKirk on Aug. 5 in his hometown of
Northumberland, Pennsylvania. He will be buried in Northumberland next
to his wife, who died in 1975. The burial will be private.
Can embattled gray whale make it home?
Young, undernourished mammal was discovered entangled off Southern California, but has been freed and is inching slowly toward Arctic home waters
Gray whale dragging kelp and perhaps a rope off Mission Beach; photo via Facebook
Last Thursday the 25-foot juvenile whale was spotted off Mission Beach and La Jolla in San Diego County. It was entangled with rope—possibly a commercial fishing line—and kelp, and was clearly encumbered (see top image).
Most gray whales have already reached their Arctic feeding grounds, after spending the winter and part of spring in Baja California nursing and mating grounds. This straggler was swimming at about the same pace a person walks.
Gray whale, no longer entangled, is spotted Saturday off Huntington Beach; photo courtesy of John Minar
Alex Rennie posted this recollection on Facebook: “Kid you not—today I got a foot massage … from a WHALE!! I surfed with Rick and Victor at Tourmaline’s today … and I noticed there was a whale circling around me. Its back was barnacled, so I first thought it was a rock until it started moving and breached—exhaling. I yelled to the guys and Victor paddled over. The whale proceeded to bump Victor from under his board lifting him about a foot upward.
Gray whale investigates Cabrillo Marina; last three photos are courtesy of ©Diane Alps/Cabrillo Marine Aquarium
“He was about 20+ feet long—where the barnacles ended—his skin was smooth and dark grey (and felt nice on my feet!) I thought I saw seaweed or something dangling off his tail—so the only downer to it is that he may have been seeking our help.”
Was the whale seeking help? Only the whale knows.
But this whale looked thin and undernourished, and was covered with an inordinate amount of lice (whale lice is normal, but too much whale lice is a sign of poor health).
But the whale pushed on, and received significant help from somebody, or some group, on the weekend.
A whale of similar size and with similar markings—almost undoubtedly the same whale—was spotted Saturday off Orange County. And it was no longer entangled.
David Anderson of Capt. Dave’s Dolphin and Whale Safari posted on Facebook that he had located the whale, ready to help disentangle the mammal, but that job had already been accomplished by “a lifeguard.”
NOAA, which is supposed to be notified before any disentanglement effort is made, has not said who or what group freed the whale, or whether this was even the same whale. But unofficially, it’s the same whale.
On Saturday, the cetacean made an appearance near the lineup at the U.S. Open of Surfing in Huntington Beach. On Sunday it was seen inside Cabrillo Marina, within vast Los Angeles Harbor, swimming in and out of boat slips.
Diane Alps, programs coordinator at Cabrillo Marine Aquarium, captured the last three images accompanying this story. On Monday she posted this update on Facebook:
“Yesterday we got a visit from a juvenile gray whale, approx 25ft long, in the Cabrillo Marina—not just in the LA Harbor, but way up in the Marina! Worried that it might have been the entangled whale that was reported off of La Jolla, I called John Calambokidis, (a trained and authorized disentangler) who was nearby, readying to depart for a research project.
“Once we found the whale, we were able to confirm that it was not entangled (yea!) There is still great concern though, as this whale is slow moving, and WAY behind its feeding schedule.”
There are about 22,000 Pacific gray whales, which spend the summer gorging on small crustaceans, such as amphipods, that are concentrated in Arctic waters.
The juvenile whale off Southern California is probably hungry, but there’s hope along those lines. Gray whales are highly opportunistic and feed on more items than any other species of whale, including krill, which is presently blooming off Southern and Central California.
Wrote Alisa Schulman-Janiger on Facebook: “Note the heavy infestation of orange whale lice and the large post-cranial dip (depression behind the blowholes), indicating that this whale is underweight and not in good health. It was moving up the coast at a very slow rate of just over about one mile an hour; gray whales typically swim at three to five miles per hour.
“Please watch for this ailing whale as it passes through the South Bay and up the coastline!”
So the watch continues, and the best news is that the whale is no longer encumbered, so maybe that will provide this underdog with the boost it needs to prevail.
วันจันทร์ที่ 7 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2557
Cursed Warship Revealed With Treasure Onboard
Researchers and divers have started studying the secrets the Mars, the pride of Sweden's 16th-century navy, has held for 450 years.
The Mars lies at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, where it sank during a naval battle in 1564. A diver at upper right provides scale.
COMPOSITE PHOTOGRAPH BY TOMASZ STACHURA, OCEAN DISCOVERY
Now, a few years after the ship's discovery, researchers have concluded that the one-of-a-kind ship is also the best preserved ship of its kind, representing the first generation of Europe's big, three-masted warships.
PUBLISHED JULY 7, 2014
It was the largest and fiercest warship in the world, named the Mars for the Roman god of war, but it went up in a ball of flames in a brutal naval battle in 1564, consigning 800 to 900 Swedish and German sailors and a fortune in gold and silver coins to the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
but very little about warships from the 16th century, said Johan Rönnby, a professor of maritime archaeology at Södertörn University in Sweden, who is studying the 197-foot-long (60 meter) wreck.
"It's a missing link," said Rönnby, whose work is funded in part by a grant from the National Geographic Society's Global Exploration Fund. The 1500s is an important period, he said, because it's when big three-masted warships started being built.
Researchers have found cargo from early warships called galleons—slightly later iterations of the type of vessel the Mars exemplifies. And they've recovered pieces of actual ships, including the English flagshipMary Rose, which sank during a battle in 1545. But never have they found something as well preserved as the Mars.
Rönnby and his team want to leave the Mars on the seafloor and instead use three-dimensional scans and photographs to share the wreck with the world.
Rönnby, with help from Richard Lundgren—part owner of Ocean Discovery, a company of professional divers that assists in maritime archaeology work—and others, has been piecing together photomosaics and scanning the wreck to produce 3-D reconstructions. With funding from the National Geographic Society/Waitt Grants Program, they are working this summer to complete their scans of the entire ship.
Bringing a ship out of the ocean is expensive, and it can cause significant harm to artifacts. The laser scans Lundgren and colleagues have taken are accurate to within 0.08 inches (2 millimeters)—more than enough to satisfy most researchers.
Using some relatively new tools and methods, archeologists now have a chance to reconstruct the last minutes of the ship and the souls onboard, Lundgren said, and gain some insight into how people behaved on a battlefield.
Finding the Mars
Treasure hunters, archaeologists, and history aficionados have sought the Mars over the years. But they were unsuccessful until the late spring of 2011, when a group of divers located one of maritime archaeology's greatest finds in 246 feet (75 meters) of water. (See "5 Shipwrecks Lost to Time That Archaeologists Would Love to Get Their Hands On.")
Legend has it that a specter rose from the inferno to guard the Mars, the pride of the Swedish navy, against ever being discovered.
The discovery was the culmination of a 20-year search by Lundgren, along with his brother Ingemar and their colleague Fredrik Skogh. The men had dreamed of finding the mighty Mars since making a childhood visit to a Stockholm museum housing another iconic Swedish warship, named the Vasa. Richard and Ingemar Lundgren became professional divers in part because of that dream.
NG STAFF, JAMIE HAWK. SOURCE: RICHARD LUNDGREN, OCEAN DISCOVERY
War Machine
The Mars sank on May 31, 1564, off the coast of a Swedish island called Öland. She came to rest on the seafloor tilted to her starboard, or right, side. Low levels of sediment, slow currents, brackish water, and the absence of a mollusk called a shipworm—responsible for breaking down wooden wrecks in other oceans in as little as five years—combined to keep the warship in remarkable condition.
What makes this find even more exciting, said Lundgren, is that the Marsdidn't sink because of a design flaw or poor seamanship.
"Mars was a functioning war machine that performed extremely well in battle," he explained. She sank loaded to the gills with cannons—even her crow's nests had guns—sailors, and all the accoutrements needed to run a ship built for war (including eight different kinds of beer).
This warship had "totally unheard of firepower" for her time, said Lundgren. And it's those cannons that played a role in her demise.
A Fiery End
The Mars went down while engaged with a Danish force allied with soldiers from a German city called Lübeck. The Swedes routed the Danes on the first day of battle, said Rönnby. So on the second day, the Germans decided to press their luck.
German forces began lobbing fireballs at the Mars and eventually succeeded in pulling alongside the burning ship so soldiers could board her. As gunpowder on the warship fueled the inferno, the heat became so intense that cannons began to explode, said Rönnby.
Those explosions eventually sank the warship. Legend, however, tells a slightly different story.
The Swedish kings at the time were busy trying to consolidate their position, Rönnby explained. "[But] the Catholic Church was a problem for the new kings because it was so powerful," he said. So in trying to diminish the church's power, monarchs like Erik XIV—who commissioned the Mars—would confiscate church bells, melt them down, and use the metal to make cannons for their new warships.
Legend has it that carrying those repurposed church bells doomed theMars to a watery grave. The warship carried either 107 or 173 cannons of many different sizes.
A Time Machine
"It's not just a ship, it's a battlefield," said Rönnby. Diving on the wreck, "you're very close to this dramatic fire on board, people killing each other, everything was burning and exploding," he said.
In fact, when Lundgren and colleagues brought a piece of the ship's hull to the surface, they noticed a charred scent wafting from the burnt wood.
"In the end, I think, that's the aim of archaeology—to discuss ourselves and the human aspects of a site," Rönnby said.
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วันพุธที่ 2 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2557
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