A dangerous new world of drones
October 1, 2012
A model of of the European
"Neuron" UAV at the Paris Air Show in Le Bourget, France in 2005. The
UAV is an European Research project led by Dassault Aviation.
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Military drones
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Peter Bergen: American monopoly on drones is long gone; 70 nations have them
- He says drones will change warfare and lead to a new arms race
- China, Iran, Israel, European nations are among those with drones, he says
- Bergen: U.S. use of drones is setting a precedent without enough discussion of the legal issues
Editor's note: Peter
Bergen, CNN's national security analyst, is director of the national
security studies program at the New America Foundation, a
Washington-based think tank that seeks innovative solutions across the
ideological spectrum, and the author of the new book "Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden -- From 9/11 to Abbottabad." Jennifer Rowland is a program associate at the New America Foundation
Washington (CNN) -- A decade ago, the United States had a virtual monopoly on drones.
Not anymore. According to
data compiled by the New America Foundation, more than 70 countries now
own some type of drone, though just a small number of those nations
possess armed drone aircraft.
The explosion in drone
technology promises to change the way nations conduct war and threatens
to begin a new arms race as governments scramble to counterbalance their
adversaries.
Peter Bergen
Late last month, China announced
that it would use surveillance drones to monitor a group of uninhabited
islands in the South China Sea that are controlled by Japan but claimed
by China and Taiwan.
In August 2010, Iran unveiled
what it claimed was its first armed drone. And on Tuesday, the
country's military chief, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, disclosed details of a new long-range drone that he said can fly 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), which puts Tel Aviv easily in range.
But without an
international framework governing the use of drone attacks, the United
States is setting a dangerous precedent for other nations with its
aggressive and secretive drone programs in Pakistan and Yemen, which are
aimed at suspected members of al Qaeda and their allies.
There has been virtually no substantive public discussion about drone attacks among policymakers at the international level.
Peter Bergen, Jennifer Rowland
Peter Bergen, Jennifer Rowland
Just as the U.S.
government justifies its drone strikes with the argument that it is at
war with al Qaeda and its affiliates, one could imagine that India in
the not too distant future might launch such attacks against suspected
terrorists in Kashmir, or China might strike Uighur separatists in
western China, or Iran might attack Baluchi nationalists along its
border with Pakistan.
This moment may almost be here. China took the United States by surprise
in November 2010 at the Zhuhai Air Show, where it unveiled 25 drone
models, some of which were outfitted with the capability to fire
missiles.
It remains unclear just
how many of China's drones are operational and how many of them are
still in development, but China is intent on catching up with the United
States' rapidly expanding drone arsenal.
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When President George W. Bush declared a "War on Terror" 11 years ago, the Pentagon had fewer than 50 drones.
Now, it has around 7,500.
As Bush embarked on that
war, the United States had never used armed drones in combat. The first
U.S. armed drone attack, which appears to be the first such strike
ever, took place in mid-November 2001 and killed the military commander
of al Qaeda, Mohammed Atef, in Afghanistan.
Since then, the CIA has
used drones equipped with bombs and missiles hundreds of times to target
suspected militants in Pakistan and Yemen.
Only the United States,
United Kingdom and Israel are known to have launched drone strikes
against their adversaries, although other members of the International
Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, such as Australia, have "borrowed" drones from Israel for use in the war there.
Drone technology is proliferating rapidly.
A 2011 study estimated that there were around 680 active drone
development programs run by governments, companies and research
institutes around the world, compared with just 195 in 2005.
In 2010, U.S.-based General Atomics received export licenses to sell unarmed versions of the Predator drone to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates. And in March, the U.S. government agreed to arm Italy's six Reaper drones but rejected a request from Turkey to purchase armed Predator drones.
An official in Turkey's Defense Ministry said in July that Turkey planned to arm its own domestically produced drone, the Anka.
Israel is the world's
largest exporter of drones and drone technology, and the state-owned
Israeli Aerospace Industries has sold to countries as varied as Nigeria,
Russia and Mexico.
Building drones,
particularly armed drones, takes sophisticated technology and specific
weaponry, but governments are increasingly willing to invest the
necessary time and money to either buy or develop them, as armed drones
are increasingly seen as an integral part of modern warfare.
Sweden, Greece,
Switzerland, Spain, Italy and France are working on a joint project
through state-owned aeronautical companies and are in the final stages
of developing an advanced armed drone prototype called the Dassault nEURon, from which the France plans to derive armed drones for its air force.
And Pakistani
authorities have long tried to persuade the United States to give them
armed Predator drones, while India owns an armed Israeli drone designed
to detect and destroy enemy radar, though it does not yet have drones
capable of striking other targets.
The Teal Group, a defense consulting firm in Virginia, estimated in June that the global market
for the research, development and procurement of armed drones will just
about double in the next decade, from $6.6 billion to $11.4 billion.
States are not alone in
their quest for drones. Insurgent groups, too, are moving to acquire
this technology. Last year, Libyan opposition forces trying to overthrow
the dictator Moammar Gadhafi bought a sophisticated surveillance drone from a Canadian company for which they paid in the low six figures.
You can even buy your own tiny drone on Amazon for $250. (And for an extra $3.99, you can get next-day shipping.)
As drone technology
becomes more widely accessible, it is only a matter of time before
well-financed drug cartels acquire them. And you can imagine a day in
the not too distant future where armed drones are used to settle
personal vendettas.
Given the relatively low
costs of drones -- already far cheaper than the costs of a fighter jet
and of training a fighter jet pilot -- armed drones will play a key role
in future conflicts.
While the drone industry
thrives and more companies, research institutes and nations jump on
board the drone bandwagon, the United States is setting a powerful
international norm about the use of armed drones, which it uses for
pre-emptive attacks against presumed terrorists in Pakistan and Yemen.
It is these kinds of drone strikes that are controversial; the use of
drones in a conventional war is not much different than a manned
aircraft that drops bombs or fires missiles.
According to figures compiled by the New America Foundation, drone attacks aimed at suspected militants are estimated to have killed between 1,900 and 3,200 people in Pakistan over the past eight years.
While there has been
considerable discussion of the legality of such strikes in a number of
U.S. law schools, there has been almost no substantive public discussion
about drone attacks among policymakers at the international level.
The time has come for
some kind of international convention on the legal framework surrounding
the uses of such weapons, which promise to shape the warfare of the
future as much as tanks and bombers did during the 20th century.
(Fatima Mustafa and Farhad Peikar contributed to the research for this article.)
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