Describing the political will of Burma’s President Thein Sein to break with the legacy of the country's previous military regime as “100 percent strong,” the International Crisis Group (ICG) has called on the outside world to actively support his efforts to implement political and economic reforms.
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank must give all possible technical advice and assistance to Burma in response to recent tentative political and economic reforms, said the Brussels-based group in its latest report on the country, noting that failure to do so would be to “the lasting detriment” of the Burmese people.
“What is important to recognize now is that because the situation has changed both inside the country and in the region, so must the policies and tactics of those trying to use Asean [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] as a lever to reform Myanmar [Burma],” the group said in its 21-page report, “Myanmar: Major Reform Underway,” released on Thursday.
It also said that the Asean is highly likely to grant its 2014 chairmanship to Burma, adding that denying this request by the new Burmese government would deal a blow to the reformist group led by Thein Sein and encourage “reactionary elements in the administration.”
“It seems clear that the political will exists to pursue economic reforms, including macroeconomic issues and tackling corruption and poverty. Such determination is indispensable but will not alone be enough to reverse decades of mismanagement,” it said.
The report also noted that recent developments in Burma, including a meeting between Thein Sein and pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, could be the beginning of “historic change” in Burma.
Citing civilian and diplomatic sources, the report describes Thein Sein as a modest and approachable head of state who is open to advice and new ideas and strongly committed to implementing reforms, despite opposition within his own government to the broad reform agenda outlined in his inaugural speech in March during the first 100 days of his administration.
The report also claims that former junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe no longer plays a role in day-to-day government decisions and has stopped “exercising any discernible influence over events,” excerpt on one occasion in July when he summoned the hardliner First Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo to his residence and told him to “stop obstructing the work of the government.”
“This has given the president the confidence and space to implement his reform agenda,” said the report.
This account of Than Shwe's role in supporting Thein Sein also suggests that the reclusive former dictator, whose regime has been accused of committing numerous well-documented human rights violations and neglecting the welfare of the country's mostly impoverished population, has himself contributed to reform initiatives.
According to the report, Thein Sein's reform efforts also enjoy the backing of armed forces commander-in-chief Gen Min Aung Hlaing and key government ministers, including the defense and home ministers.
The report added that there was a possibility of a major release of political prisoners in May when Thein Sein announced a one-year clemency for all prisoners, but that did not happen due to disagreements within the top leadership.
But since mid-July, Thein Sein has successfully asserted his authority over reactionary hardliner forces in the government, opening the way for implementation of his reform package, said the group.
“The reforms are driven predominantly by domestic considerations, including the need to resolve longstanding economic and political crises,” said the group, suggesting that these developments might have little to do with outside pressure and Western economic sanctions.
Despite its overwhelmingly positive assessment of recent developments in Burma, the report also notes ongoing human rights violations by the Burmese military and the continuing incarceration of political prisoners. However, it suggests that calls for a UN Commission of Inquiry into war crimes and crimes against humanity in Burma may no longer be relevant, as the country moves toward reforms, including on human rights.
Instead, the report recommends that the international community focus its efforts on ways to support the process of reform and encourage engagement.
While the ICG report strongly endorses the notion that Thein Sein is seriously pursuing reforms, many observers view recent moves by the government as more symbolic than substantive, aimed at gaining legitimacy for the country's new brand of military-dominated parliamentary rule.
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