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Kerry to North Korea: U.S. will defend its allies in the region

Video: Secretary of State John Kerry has kicked off four days of talks in East Asia amid speculation that the North's unpredictable regime would launch a mid-range missile designed to reach as far as the U.S. territory of Guam.

By Anne Gearan,

SEOUL — Secretary of State John F. Kerry warned North Korea’s young leader Friday that his country would lose any military conflict with the United States and said he is open to new talks with the North.
Kerry pledged strong defense of allies South Korea and Japan against threats from Pyongyang that he called unacceptable and shortsighted. Kerry said he carried a message from President Obama that “the United States will, if needed, defend our allies and defend ourselves.”

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“Kim Jong Un needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of the conflict would be,” Kerry said in an unmistakable reference to the overwhelming military might of the United States.
He and other U.S. and South Korean officials discounted a newly revealed assessment by the Pentagon’s intelligence arm that North Korea might be able to launch a nuclear warhead aboard a missile. Still, Kerry acknowledged, recent technical developments in the North are worrying.
The Pentagon analysis concluded with “moderate confidence” that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles but said that the weapon would be unreliable.
But a U.S. official in Seoul said Friday that it is “premature” to conclude that the North has succeeded in the difficult task of shrinking a nuclear warhead to the size needed to fit on an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Added South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok: “Our military’s assessment is that North Korea has not yet miniaturized” a nuclear device.
Kerry held crisis talks Friday with South Korea. He heads to Beijing on Saturday to lobby for stronger efforts by China to rein in its reclusive ally. The chief U.S. diplomat on Sunday will visit Japan, which, like South Korea, is protected by an American guarantee of military protection should North Korea launch an Asian war.
U.S. and Asian diplomats say they doubt North Korea will go that far but acknowledge a launch of midrange missiles seems increasingly likely as a show of force meant for U.S. consumption. The launch could come while Kerry is in Seoul, a short drive from the Korean peninsula’s demilitarized zone.
South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se said North Korea is engaging in a “grave provocation” that will yield it nothing. He appealed for calm.
Attempting to step back from the rising confrontation, Kerry said Obama had canceled some potential military exercises and is trying to calm a volatile situation. Kerry and Yun said new talks are possible with the North, but Kerry warned that the United States will not repeat a pattern of rewarding the North with aid and concessions only to have the North renege.
“The greatest danger here is a mistake,” Kerry said, specifically warning that a missile launch would be a dangerous provocation. “We call on Kim Jong Un to realize this is a moment for responsible leadership.”
A new launch would be the latest North Korean show of power despite objections from China, the North’s neighbor, principal ally and benefactor. China backed North Korea in the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended with an armistice. It underwrites the Marxist North through direct and indirect financial aid, large fuel subsidies and food supplies. Without that support, North Korea could easily collapse, creating a security vacuum and refugee crisis on China’s border.
“What we really want them to do is carry some tough messages to Pyongyang and make it clear to them also that denuclearization is their goal,” said a senior State Department official traveling with Kerry.
The State Department official and others in the delegation spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid about the situation on the peninsula.
Kerry will press China to support new U.N. sanctions in protest of the North’s escalating belligerence, U.S. officials have said. The North regularly ignores U.N. Security Council resolutions prohibiting it from conducting launches or nuclear tests.
This trip is Kerry’s first to Asia as secretary of state and his first ever to South Korea. It comes as the tension with North Korea has reached its highest point in years. The trip also comes amid a period of political transition, with new governments in place in South Korea, China and Japan.
Kerry met with new South Korean President Park Geun-hye, who had tried to cool North-South tensions ahead of Kerry’s arrival. She suggested dialogue. “Should we not meet with them and ask: ‘Just what are you trying to do?’ ” Korean media quoted her as saying.
North Korea has issued an escalating series of threats and warnings against the United States, which it considers the national enemy. But a U.S. official said Friday there are no signs of imminent preparation for war in North Korea, such as large exercises or troop mobilizations. The 28,000-strong U.S. force in the region would have little or no warning of a missile launch, the official said, and is maintaining a policy of being “ready to fight tonight.”
As they do every year, U.S. and South Korean troops have held joint military drills in recent weeks. This time, they have added heavy U.S. firepower in the form of B-2 bombers, as a show of might to the North.
“We have to be ready, because Kim Jong Un’s youth and inexperience make him very vulnerable to miscalculation,” the U.S. official said.
North Korea maintains a military of more than 1 million troops — the world’s fifth-largest armed force.
Kerry’s visit coincides with the first anniversary Saturday of Kim’s assumption of leadership of the North Korean National Defense Commission, the top government body. Kim took power in North Korea in December 2011 after the death of his father.
North Koreans are celebrating Saturday’s anniversary and the April 15 birthday of Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, founder of the modern state and the Kim dynasty. Previous missile launches or tests have marked North Korean holidays or have appeared timed to draw attention to the North on American holidays.
North Korea conducted a failed satellite launch during last year’s celebrations, but another launch succeeded in December. The United States says the launch was a cover for a test of a long-range ballistic missile.