Thai Protesters Begin Bangkok Blockade to Oust Yingluck
By Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Anuchit Nguyen Jan 13, 2014 8:21 AM
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The demonstrators, who are demanding that an unelected council be installed to reform the political system before a Feb. 2 election, began blocking traffic on Sukhumvit Road early today after cutting off access to a government complex north of the city center last night. The government has said it will deploy 20,000 soldiers and police to combat the blockade.Thai protesters began blocking major roads in Bangkok, disrupting traffic and increasing pressure on Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to resign.
Yingluck’s administration has faced more than two months of street demonstrations led by Suthep Thaugsuban, a former power broker with the opposition Democrat Party, which is boycotting the Feb. 2 vote. Suthep, who has refused to negotiate with Yingluck, says electoral democracy should be suspended until his council of “good people” can reform politics and remove what he says is the corrupting influence of her family.
“Thailand finds itself bereft of a credible center that can forge reconciliation and a settlement that recognizes elements of justice in both sides of the political divide,” said Michael Connors, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham, Malaysia Campus. “If that center does not emerge, we can only imagine further violence and chaos as one side seeks to crush the other.”
A volunteer security guard stands at one of the anti-government People's Democratic... Read More
Allies of Yingluck’s brother,Thaksin Shinawatra, have won the past five elections, including two since his ouster in a 2006 coup, on support from rural northern and northeastern regions. The protesters, mostly middle-class Bangkokians, say Yingluck’s government is corrupt, illegitimate and run from abroad by Thaksin, who faces a two-year jail term for corruption if he returns in a case he says was politically motivated.
Businesses Open
Government offices, commercial banks and financial markets will be open, Surapong Tovichakchaikul, the minister tasked with handling the government response, said Jan. 10. The U.S. embassy last week advised U.S. citizens in the city to keep a week’s supply of cash and a two-week supply of food, water and medicine, according to its website.
“People should go about their normal lives,” Surapong said. “Demonstrations on Jan. 13 shouldn’t cause any chaos as protesters confirm that they will gather without weapons.”
Protesters plan to set up stages at seven locations, five major intersections in Bangkok’s central business districts, one at Lad Prao in the north of the city, and one outside the Government Complex at Chaeng Wattana north of the city.
People walk outside the Government house in Bangkok on January 12, 2014.
Trains, Ferries
Hundreds of protesters camped overnight outside Citigroup Inc.’s Thai headquarters at the Asoke intersection on Sukhumvit Road, which runs through the center of the city. Street vendors sold whistles and shirts with anti-government slogans to demonstrators as they arrived at the intersection by train.
The protests won’t paralyze the city because the subway, elevated railway and ferries will operate normally, Transport Minister Chadchart Sittipunt said Jan. 9. The government has set up 36 additional parking lots that can hold 18,000 vehicles to help people who commute to the inner-city by car.
Yingluck has refused demands from the demonstrators to resign, arguing that the almost 16 million people who voted for her in 2011 deserve to have a say in the nation’s future. Clashes have left eight people dead and hundreds injured, including seven who were wounded in a shooting incident near Democracy Monument over the weekend. Another protester was shot overnight near Chaeng Wattana, the Bangkok Post reported today.
Coup Fears
The protesters, who have vowed to disrupt the elections next month, have told civil servants and soldiers that they must choose a side in the conflict. Their leaders’ refusal to negotiate with Yingluck, and mounting legal cases against government efforts to change the constitution and implement spending plans, have stoked rumors that the military may stage a coup, which the army chief hasn’t ruled out.
It is “not realistic” to think the Bangkok protest itself will exert enough pressure on Yingluck to force her to step down, said Michael Montesano, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies inSingapore. “There has to be some form of intervention for her to be crippled,” he said, noting the protest was designed “clearly to provoke a crisis.”
Thailand has had nine coups and more than 20 prime ministers since 1946. Army Chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha has said in recent weeks that the “door” to a coup is neither open nor closed, raising speculation that the army may step in if protests become violent.
“People are scared of something that hasn’t taken place yet,” he said Jan. 7. “Don’t be scared if you can’t see it. Everything must happen for a reason.”
Economic Cost
The demonstrations could cost the economy as much as 1 billion baht ($30 million) a day, according to a survey released last week by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Tourism accounts for about 10 percent of Thailand’s $366 billion economy, according to central bank data.
Global funds pulled a net $3.93 billion from Thai bonds and stocks since the beginning of November, official data show. The baht reached 33.148 on Jan. 6, the weakest level since 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
This week’s protest “could be the next catalyst for weakness in the currency and Thai assets, particularly if it gets violent,” said Sacha Tihanyi, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Scotiabank. “Further political unrest raises the probability of additional foreign selling of Thai assets, constrains growth and increases the chance of additional monetary easing from the Bank of Thailand.”
Stock Slump
The SET Index (SET) of shares fell more than 12 percent since the end of October, when the protest began, and had its lowest close on Jan. 3 since August 2012.
“We don’t expect they will close many roads, but we are prepared,” Sittipunt said. He encouraged tourists to use the Airport Rail Link, which connects Suvarnabhumi International Airport with stations in the city.
Suthep has said the anti-Thaksin demonstrators won’t target either of Bangkok’s two airports, as they did in 2008 when an eight-day siege of Suvarnabhumi ended with the ouster of a Thaksin-linked government. Bangkok’s Don Mueang airport, and U-Tapao airport near Pattaya south of the capital, have been prepared as back-ups, Chadchart said.
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