China's 18th Party Congress: Why so secretive?
November 2, 2012 -- Updated 0334 GMT (1134 HKT)
A
paramilitary policeman passes by the portrait of China's President Hu
Jintao at a state-sponsored exhibition in Beijing Tuesday.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- There are no laws -- or even clear rules -- that govern selection of leaders, Bao writes
- Bao: It is unlikely that public will ever know how Xi became Hu's designated successor
- Selection of powerful Politburo Standing Committee is another top level state secret
- Bao: Public consent is lacking; in media age, leaders respond by making system more opaque
Editor's note: Bao Pu is the founder of Hong Kong-based New Century Press, which published "Prisoner of the State: The Secret Journal of Premier Zhao Ziyang."
(CNN) -- Rumors and speculation are running wild, as
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares for its 18th Party Congress.
So far, though, the most tangible thing about the Congress is the
massive deployment of extended security measures in China, resulting in
the cancelation of academic conferences, art exhibitions, performances
and even private meetings.
In a way, the CCP is asking the entire Chinese nation to hold its breath until the Congress ends.
All this effort is
expended over the transfer of power to the "next generation" of Chinese
leaders. Indeed, these extra security measures indicate that the leaders
of the CCP understand well their weakness: that the fragility of an
authoritarian system lies in its transfer of power.
Bao Pu
That is, despite its
domination over the lives of the Chinese people, even the Communist
party is not exempt from the general political axiom that a governing
régime relies on popular acceptance of its authority.
The problem is that is no
one, not even the Party's own members, voted for the next generation of
CCP leaders. There are no laws -- or even any clear rules -- that
govern the selection of leaders, leaving the matter of choosing the top
leaders of the most populous nation on earth entirely at the mercy of
the Party's forever changing internal logic.
Even after a decade as
the top leader of China, how exactly President Hu Jintao became Jiang
Zemin's designated successor remains a mystery even to expert analysts
and historians.
Retracing Chen Guangcheng's escape
The selection process is
and will always remain at the highest level of state secrets, guarded
even from the majority of Party members. The most important reason is
that any detail, if known, could be used as ammunition for internal
party strife and dangerously expose the leadership's vulnerabilities.
China censors NY Times after Wen story
On April 30, 1976, after
Premier Hua Guofeng had accompanied Chairman Mao Zedong to a meeting
with New Zealand Prime Minister Robert Muldoon, Hua told Mao that he
would summon activists from Sichuan and Guizhou provinces to Beijing for
a conference to strengthen the "Criticize Deng Xiaoping Campaign."
Presidential candidates on China
Mao was already
suffering from a neural disease that made him unable to speak, so he
replied by jotting down a note that read: "With you in charge, I am at
ease." Five months later, Mao died, and Hua became his successor as
chairman.
That note became the
main vehicle of state propaganda efforts to lend Hua legitimacy. And in
order to keep its original limited context a secret, Foreign Minister
Qiao Guanhua, an eyewitness to the original exchange, was sacked.
It is unlikely that the
public will ever know how Xi Jinping became the designated successor of
Hu Jintao. Whether or not he was actually handpicked by Jiang Zemin, as
rumored, will remain a secret, and even if Jiang were confirmed to have
picked Xi, Jiang does not have the charismatic stature of Mao to lend
instant legitimacy to his chosen successor, and the lack of public
consent would only be highlighted.
In Hua's case, details surfaced only after he was politically sidelined and excluded from positions of power.
In addition to the
selection of president and the party's general secretary, the selection
of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee is another top level state
secret, because the details of who nominated whom would allow political
analysts to figure out factional affiliations and map out the complex
web of entrenched interests.
Under certain
circumstances, information regarding top leaders is released to the
public only with intent. Deciding which details to release or not to
release on the fallen Bo Xilai must have been a real headache for the
Chinese leadership. When the case against his wife, Gu Kailai, was first
announced, there was no mention of Bo himself.
Too many details would
only confirm the longstanding public impression that families of
high-level Party officials use their connections to rapidly accumulate
millions and live their private lives in stark contrast to the Party's
claims of altruism. Yet, some details needed to be released, as
authorities built their case against him.
Thus, the decision of
what and when to release information has seemed painfully slow and
cautious, creating the perfect environment for rumors and speculation to
feed public curiosity.
In today's global
information environment, details on the Chinese leadership can now reach
millions of people in a matter of minutes via online media and social
networks. More than likely, Chinese leaders do not like the way the
public reacts to news that is not carefully crafted by the state's
propaganda machinery.
In March 2012, a young
man driving a Ferrari 458 Spider with two young women aboard died in a
fatal high-speed crash. Information about the incident went viral online
before it could be suppressed. The driver was reportedly
found to be Ling Gu, the son of Ling Jihua, President Hu Jintao's
protégé, who was demoted six months after the Ferrari incident.
Recently, the New York Times report
of Premier Wen Jiabao's alleged family business ventures spread
throughout the Chinese online network shortly after publication, even
after Chinese authorities had blocked access to the newspaper's English
and Chinese websites. The same happened after Bloomberg reported on the wealth of Xi's extended family.
That is a far cry from
September 13, 1971. When Mao's comrade-in-arms Lin Biao died in a
mysterious plane crash in Mongolia, it took months for the news to
ripple through widening circles of the population.
Thus, the Chinese
leaders' response to the new age of information has been to make their
political system ever more opaque and expend enormous resources on media
censorship.
Such is the case with
Xi, China's designated leader, of which little is known beyond official
accounts. His personality too must be kept secret through a web of media
censorship, because such information could be used by opponents to
figure out his political tendencies and preempt his political actions.
If we have to make an intelligent guess about Xi, we might have to look at the CCP's recent "History of the Chinese Communist Party, Volume 2 (1949-1978),"
which covers the Mao years. This grand project was led by none other
than Xi Jinping, according to official reports, and reportedly under his
sole discretion. The result is another Party effort to cosmetically
make over the disastrous events of the Mao era.
When Xi is in power, he will be turning Party history to its next page.
"He who controls the past controls the future."
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